From Harry Mason
orbitx@bigpond.com
Perth, Australia6-9-5
The article posted below is one of several fairly RECENT mainstream geo-science warnings re the Indonesia Arc event and their concerns regarding future imminent major event risks in that area - including reference to increased West Australian risk.
I went public very early in late December 2004 with warnings that the 9.3 r event was highly anomalous and should be treated as the precursor of worse to come over the next year or more.
I suggested the WA State Emergency services plan and then arrange well rehearsed emergency evacuation plans for ALL WA beaches AND that the Government inform our coastal residents of exactly what to do in the event of a tsunamis warning spread over ALL Radio & TV stations. I got some flack from the usual suspects, some knowing winks, and some bureaucratic dis-interested lip service at the time. In general I was left feeling that I must be a crank of the "rocks in the head" kind. I persevered and actually got to speak to the Premiers office and then a State Emergency service mandarin through the efforts of our then Jarrahdale Labor MP Martin Whitely.
I thank Martin for his concerns and his help.
But here we are in early June 2005 - nearly six months later and I have heard ZILCH re organised evacuation plans for Perth and/or other State beaches - in the event of a Tsunamis warning. NO Government plans appear to have been either developed or communicated to the public ???
Obviously, tsunami warning methods, evacuation routes, and high ground safety zones need to be well thought out - preferably well IN ADVANCE of any such an event.
Has this been achieved ??? Has the State Emergency Department plugged into the new Indian Ocean Tsunami Alert System ??? Is there One ??? Do they realise that on past performance for the 9.3r and subsequent +7.5r events that waiting for advice from Canberra Australian Geo-Science etc will see the tsunamis coming ashore as the warning e-mail arrives ??? Have they looked into establishing our own 24 hour manned WA seismic center to give timely warnings by our scientists to our residents ??? After all Canberra is far too high in the sky to give a damn about our WA surf dwellers.
Did they read the references I sent them about good geological evidence for MAJOR tsunamis inroads on WA beaches AND adjacent inland areas from the Kimberley to Perth to Bunbury to Albany to Esperance in the NOT so distant past ???? Some of the biggest tsunamis being in the State's SW - due to unknown offshore sources - documented by Aboriginal lore and archaeological as well as geological studies ???
Do we have ANY plans with how to distribute AND deal with a WA tsunamis warning ???
Why have the Public NOT been informed of the NOW daily increasing risk to our NW coast ???
The recent Friday Night debacle on the Kwinana Freeway shows what happens to our Perth traffic if we have poorly co-ordinated management of communication & traffic flows - coupled with zero advance plans for the issue at hand. I and many others spent hours in our cars that night switching channels in the vain hope of learning what was going on let alone what to do to get out of the grid lock. None of the radio stations broadcast advisories every few minutes as one might have expected. Eventually I found an on the hour news short that gave the info "South Perth burst pipe" but that was it - no traffic routing advice - so we all went round in circles. I met belligerent "Freeway Blocker - Main Roads Officers" who also did not appear to know why we were stopped from going down the Freeway. Our imaginations ran riot - terrorist incident loomed large - along with well known resurfaced ideas about the State Government and their now totally confirmed lack of ability re organised piss-ups in breweries.
This tsunamis thing is NOT something that needs to await for some expensive Government outsourced report to arrive. Things are evolving fairly fast in the Indon Arc area and the nightmare could be on us tomorrow.
Nearly 6 months appears to have been wasted. Where are the plans - even initial poor plans will be better than none - whilst we await the bureaucratic machinery to crank out the Rolls Royce version the coastal population is placed at further un-necessary risk.
BTW, my own quantitative studies fully agree with McCloskeys views below - a big quake is POSSIBLY imminent in the region located immediately ESE of the previous big Indon Arc quakes. ie it could be located NW of WA and closer than the earlier 9.3r and thus could pose a serious DANGER to NW/W West Australian coastal communities - that includes Perth & Fremantle.
My best bet for a big event timing is the next Full Moon ie around the 22nd June (this could be THE significant event) - just after the Solstice on 21 June - BUT every full moon from now until this Indon Arc anomalous activity dies down can be dangerous times for beach dwellers in this region - a few years of HIGH RISK is entirely possible and thus we had better get used to sudden catastrophic events consisting of both tsunamis AND volcanic style events for which we need to develop adequate warning systems AND publicly known plans on how and where to evacuate to.
The Indon Arc earth expansion suture line is opening in sudden jerks or splits every couple of months - working slowly from the original 9.3r event site down to the ESE towards the Sunda Straits and Krakatoa - like an opening car windscreen crack. Explosive volcanism is also likely to be associated as the regional event unfolds. The possible explosive scale is difficult to predict - either big or VERY big - if the long volcanic history of this region repeats.
I view the whole geological process of this affair as a basal Mantle rising rotating igneous intrusive plume that is causing crustal spreading by cracking apart of the surface crust. This is a deep sourced event that is developing satellite surface volcanism - (over 23 craters and proto craters were newly smoking along the Andaman-Sumatra Arc the last time I looked). The diapirism also initiates associated strike slip faulting due to the diapric rotation along the entire Indon Arc - NOT as a bullshit thesis subducting slab - quite the reverse as rocks are coming up not subsiding. The igneous plume activity is slowly creeping ESE towards the Sunda Strait.
"Politically Acceptable Geo-Science" re Continental Drift and Subducting slabs diving under the Indon Arc Islands does NOT model this unfolding scenario PERIOD. Australian Professor Warren S. Carey's ideas of an "Expanding Earth" and Island Arc expansion sites caused by rising diapric igneous intrusion DOES fit the event AND thus allows a reasonable prediction of future events there.
Further big seismic events are unlikely (though NOT impossible) along the suture zone to the WNW Indon Arc and NW Andaman Arc where it still keeps letting rip with ~5r events (as these act like pressure cooker valve blow off) BUT further ESE it is quiet and yet under increasing tensional build up of stress = upward diapiric stress, and rotational shear fault displacement stress. This is where the tsunamis source danger now lies and the tendency will be for "lid blow off" ie. massive upward kicks as the roof over the diapir breaks asunder due to pressure from below. These upward kicks can move significant volumes of sea water above them AND can be accompanied by subsequent explosive volcanic events when their satellite plumes reach the sea floor.
However volcanic explosive events CAN happen in the zone of near continuous ~5r quakes when or if the underlying rising diapir magma chamber roof eventually reaches the sea floor area and is broached by sea floor disruption and subsequent sea water inflow - a la Krakatoa 1883 model.
The ENTIRE history of the Indon Arc is repeat after repeat of this explosive volcanic and coupled quake activity over the last several million years. It is WHY there is an Indon Island Arc. Although largely quiet since Krakatoa in 1883 this scenario has now developed a FRESH lease of life and observably has a long way to run.
I have been following the regional IRIS (US web site = www.iris.com) seismic event spatial distribution around the Pacific - Indon Arc region daily since 23rd December 2004 AND things are definitely hotting up. I have exchanged my concerns with other leading edge researchers into this unfolding scenario. All of us are concerned that this area is becoming increasingly dangerous. All of us are looking at different pre-cursor indicators and yet we collectively are seeing dangerous evolving energy patterns strongly suggestive of near future VERY NASTY events.
YET our Government appears to be unaware of the developing danger AND is apparently INACTIVE on these very serious issues. Your average standard terrorist suspect air traveler gets a continual demonstration of the Federal commitment to hastle - for our safety of course - but when it comes to natural disasters capable of causing mega deaths the Federal & State radar screen appears to be turned off and un-manned - if it exists at all. Strange that Muslim terrorists attract so much attention but Muslim Fault Lines and Muslim Volcanoes attract NONE.
This lack of Government action may be due to a lack of good pro-active geo-science advice on the matter at hand. State and Federal Geo-Science agency personnel are commonly restrained by a concern for job security which leads to their inability to go out on a limb and predict future events. They also tend to be quite conservative scientists - very good at what they do - BUT often unable to handle extra-ordinary anomalous situations that call for significant degrees of lateral thought to understand and predict future risk evolution.
I and others like me are unconcerned with such considerations as we are not hanging on the Government tit AND we tend to be looking at more avaant gaarde science than is commonly acceptable in State and Federal survey departmental mindsets. We call it as we see it and are not bound by a fear of subsequent demotion or job loss and/or negative peer review; nor are we ruled by conservative scientific restraining paradigms. We are prepared to be wrong AND hopefully we are !!!
BUT can we COLLECTIVELY afford to neglect the possibility of such major tsunamis events when the KNOWN geological history of the Indon Arc and our West Australian shores has been so violent in pre European occupation times AND we see highly anomalous continuing high energy activity evolving to our NW ????
It is time for both State AND Federal Government to ACT and publicise practical evacuation plans ASAP. Their next removal from office might NOT be via a voter landslide BUT via something far more fluid.
Whatever the elite adminstration finally decide it behooves one to be very careful about visits to this region and especially careful on the coast of North Western Australia and Sumatra etc. If you do not need to go there THEN DON'T.
Although further east of the Sunda Straits, Bali would not be immune to a Sunda Strait event. Bali is not only risky from the viewpoint of dope planted in ones luggage. Sea water and very very very hot ash would be far worse additions.
Regards,
Harry Mason
Quake May Be 'Imminent' Warns Tsunami Expert
By Richard Mace
6-9-5
A scientist who predicted the second Indonesian earthquake fears a third devastating jolt, powerful enough to cause another major tsunami, is "imminent".
The waves could sweep north-western Australia, reaching as far as Perth.
John McCloskey, of the University of Ulster, said building the Indian Ocean tsunami warning system was "an urgent priority".
"Don't take the foot off the gas. This is very urgent work."
In mid March, Professor McCloskey warned that the Boxing Day quake, which triggered the tsunami that killed 300,000 people, had shifted tectonic stresses to another spot on Sumatra's geological fault line.
He predicted a second strong quake, noting many did not believe lightning could strike twice. "But with earthquakes it's exactly the opposite ... I quite honestly hope we're completely wrong."
He wasn't. The second quake, measuring 8.3, struck on March 28 near the Simeulue and Nias islands, killing 2000 people.
In a new study, published in Nature, Professor McCloskey's team reports that "stresses imposed by the second rupture have brought closer to failure" another zone "immediately to the south, under the Batu and Mentawai islands".
"The historical record and the experience of the Sumatra-Andaman and Simeulue-Nias events indicate that a tsunami could be a possibility."
Professor McCloskey told the Sydney Morning Herald it would likely strike near the Mentawai islands, triggering a repeat performance of the 8.5 quake of 1833. "The 1833 earthquake is probably a reasonable model. It did trigger a tsunami and there were many casualties. That's the type of earthquake we fear it definitely could be."
Professor McCloskey noted that the 1833 tsunami reached north-western Australia. Next time "the waves would be felt in Perth," he said, adding he could not say how strong they would be.
It was impossible to say when it would happen, but the evidence, including historical data, showed it could be within 30 years, following the pattern of the 1833 and 1861 Sumatra quakes.
"It may be sooner. We must assume it's imminent and behave accordingly. We can't bury our heads in the sand."
Commenting on his last prediction, Professor McCloskey said: "I've very mixed feelings."
He had "a sense of professional satisfaction that our science has started to understand well" earthquakes. "I hope I am wrong this time, but I don't think so. It's not something you get any pleasure out of ... even though with the last one we were very accurate."
While a "high tech" warning system would protect people around the Indian Ocean, there would be no time to alert Sumatra. A program was needed to teach them how to save themselves.
"People need to plan what to do in Sumatra when they feel the earth shake. You have 15 to 20 minutes to get yourself into a position safe from the tsunami."
orbitx@bigpond.com
Perth, Australia6-9-5
The article posted below is one of several fairly RECENT mainstream geo-science warnings re the Indonesia Arc event and their concerns regarding future imminent major event risks in that area - including reference to increased West Australian risk.
I went public very early in late December 2004 with warnings that the 9.3 r event was highly anomalous and should be treated as the precursor of worse to come over the next year or more.
I suggested the WA State Emergency services plan and then arrange well rehearsed emergency evacuation plans for ALL WA beaches AND that the Government inform our coastal residents of exactly what to do in the event of a tsunamis warning spread over ALL Radio & TV stations. I got some flack from the usual suspects, some knowing winks, and some bureaucratic dis-interested lip service at the time. In general I was left feeling that I must be a crank of the "rocks in the head" kind. I persevered and actually got to speak to the Premiers office and then a State Emergency service mandarin through the efforts of our then Jarrahdale Labor MP Martin Whitely.
I thank Martin for his concerns and his help.
But here we are in early June 2005 - nearly six months later and I have heard ZILCH re organised evacuation plans for Perth and/or other State beaches - in the event of a Tsunamis warning. NO Government plans appear to have been either developed or communicated to the public ???
Obviously, tsunami warning methods, evacuation routes, and high ground safety zones need to be well thought out - preferably well IN ADVANCE of any such an event.
Has this been achieved ??? Has the State Emergency Department plugged into the new Indian Ocean Tsunami Alert System ??? Is there One ??? Do they realise that on past performance for the 9.3r and subsequent +7.5r events that waiting for advice from Canberra Australian Geo-Science etc will see the tsunamis coming ashore as the warning e-mail arrives ??? Have they looked into establishing our own 24 hour manned WA seismic center to give timely warnings by our scientists to our residents ??? After all Canberra is far too high in the sky to give a damn about our WA surf dwellers.
Did they read the references I sent them about good geological evidence for MAJOR tsunamis inroads on WA beaches AND adjacent inland areas from the Kimberley to Perth to Bunbury to Albany to Esperance in the NOT so distant past ???? Some of the biggest tsunamis being in the State's SW - due to unknown offshore sources - documented by Aboriginal lore and archaeological as well as geological studies ???
Do we have ANY plans with how to distribute AND deal with a WA tsunamis warning ???
Why have the Public NOT been informed of the NOW daily increasing risk to our NW coast ???
The recent Friday Night debacle on the Kwinana Freeway shows what happens to our Perth traffic if we have poorly co-ordinated management of communication & traffic flows - coupled with zero advance plans for the issue at hand. I and many others spent hours in our cars that night switching channels in the vain hope of learning what was going on let alone what to do to get out of the grid lock. None of the radio stations broadcast advisories every few minutes as one might have expected. Eventually I found an on the hour news short that gave the info "South Perth burst pipe" but that was it - no traffic routing advice - so we all went round in circles. I met belligerent "Freeway Blocker - Main Roads Officers" who also did not appear to know why we were stopped from going down the Freeway. Our imaginations ran riot - terrorist incident loomed large - along with well known resurfaced ideas about the State Government and their now totally confirmed lack of ability re organised piss-ups in breweries.
This tsunamis thing is NOT something that needs to await for some expensive Government outsourced report to arrive. Things are evolving fairly fast in the Indon Arc area and the nightmare could be on us tomorrow.
Nearly 6 months appears to have been wasted. Where are the plans - even initial poor plans will be better than none - whilst we await the bureaucratic machinery to crank out the Rolls Royce version the coastal population is placed at further un-necessary risk.
BTW, my own quantitative studies fully agree with McCloskeys views below - a big quake is POSSIBLY imminent in the region located immediately ESE of the previous big Indon Arc quakes. ie it could be located NW of WA and closer than the earlier 9.3r and thus could pose a serious DANGER to NW/W West Australian coastal communities - that includes Perth & Fremantle.
My best bet for a big event timing is the next Full Moon ie around the 22nd June (this could be THE significant event) - just after the Solstice on 21 June - BUT every full moon from now until this Indon Arc anomalous activity dies down can be dangerous times for beach dwellers in this region - a few years of HIGH RISK is entirely possible and thus we had better get used to sudden catastrophic events consisting of both tsunamis AND volcanic style events for which we need to develop adequate warning systems AND publicly known plans on how and where to evacuate to.
The Indon Arc earth expansion suture line is opening in sudden jerks or splits every couple of months - working slowly from the original 9.3r event site down to the ESE towards the Sunda Straits and Krakatoa - like an opening car windscreen crack. Explosive volcanism is also likely to be associated as the regional event unfolds. The possible explosive scale is difficult to predict - either big or VERY big - if the long volcanic history of this region repeats.
I view the whole geological process of this affair as a basal Mantle rising rotating igneous intrusive plume that is causing crustal spreading by cracking apart of the surface crust. This is a deep sourced event that is developing satellite surface volcanism - (over 23 craters and proto craters were newly smoking along the Andaman-Sumatra Arc the last time I looked). The diapirism also initiates associated strike slip faulting due to the diapric rotation along the entire Indon Arc - NOT as a bullshit thesis subducting slab - quite the reverse as rocks are coming up not subsiding. The igneous plume activity is slowly creeping ESE towards the Sunda Strait.
"Politically Acceptable Geo-Science" re Continental Drift and Subducting slabs diving under the Indon Arc Islands does NOT model this unfolding scenario PERIOD. Australian Professor Warren S. Carey's ideas of an "Expanding Earth" and Island Arc expansion sites caused by rising diapric igneous intrusion DOES fit the event AND thus allows a reasonable prediction of future events there.
Further big seismic events are unlikely (though NOT impossible) along the suture zone to the WNW Indon Arc and NW Andaman Arc where it still keeps letting rip with ~5r events (as these act like pressure cooker valve blow off) BUT further ESE it is quiet and yet under increasing tensional build up of stress = upward diapiric stress, and rotational shear fault displacement stress. This is where the tsunamis source danger now lies and the tendency will be for "lid blow off" ie. massive upward kicks as the roof over the diapir breaks asunder due to pressure from below. These upward kicks can move significant volumes of sea water above them AND can be accompanied by subsequent explosive volcanic events when their satellite plumes reach the sea floor.
However volcanic explosive events CAN happen in the zone of near continuous ~5r quakes when or if the underlying rising diapir magma chamber roof eventually reaches the sea floor area and is broached by sea floor disruption and subsequent sea water inflow - a la Krakatoa 1883 model.
The ENTIRE history of the Indon Arc is repeat after repeat of this explosive volcanic and coupled quake activity over the last several million years. It is WHY there is an Indon Island Arc. Although largely quiet since Krakatoa in 1883 this scenario has now developed a FRESH lease of life and observably has a long way to run.
I have been following the regional IRIS (US web site = www.iris.com) seismic event spatial distribution around the Pacific - Indon Arc region daily since 23rd December 2004 AND things are definitely hotting up. I have exchanged my concerns with other leading edge researchers into this unfolding scenario. All of us are concerned that this area is becoming increasingly dangerous. All of us are looking at different pre-cursor indicators and yet we collectively are seeing dangerous evolving energy patterns strongly suggestive of near future VERY NASTY events.
YET our Government appears to be unaware of the developing danger AND is apparently INACTIVE on these very serious issues. Your average standard terrorist suspect air traveler gets a continual demonstration of the Federal commitment to hastle - for our safety of course - but when it comes to natural disasters capable of causing mega deaths the Federal & State radar screen appears to be turned off and un-manned - if it exists at all. Strange that Muslim terrorists attract so much attention but Muslim Fault Lines and Muslim Volcanoes attract NONE.
This lack of Government action may be due to a lack of good pro-active geo-science advice on the matter at hand. State and Federal Geo-Science agency personnel are commonly restrained by a concern for job security which leads to their inability to go out on a limb and predict future events. They also tend to be quite conservative scientists - very good at what they do - BUT often unable to handle extra-ordinary anomalous situations that call for significant degrees of lateral thought to understand and predict future risk evolution.
I and others like me are unconcerned with such considerations as we are not hanging on the Government tit AND we tend to be looking at more avaant gaarde science than is commonly acceptable in State and Federal survey departmental mindsets. We call it as we see it and are not bound by a fear of subsequent demotion or job loss and/or negative peer review; nor are we ruled by conservative scientific restraining paradigms. We are prepared to be wrong AND hopefully we are !!!
BUT can we COLLECTIVELY afford to neglect the possibility of such major tsunamis events when the KNOWN geological history of the Indon Arc and our West Australian shores has been so violent in pre European occupation times AND we see highly anomalous continuing high energy activity evolving to our NW ????
It is time for both State AND Federal Government to ACT and publicise practical evacuation plans ASAP. Their next removal from office might NOT be via a voter landslide BUT via something far more fluid.
Whatever the elite adminstration finally decide it behooves one to be very careful about visits to this region and especially careful on the coast of North Western Australia and Sumatra etc. If you do not need to go there THEN DON'T.
Although further east of the Sunda Straits, Bali would not be immune to a Sunda Strait event. Bali is not only risky from the viewpoint of dope planted in ones luggage. Sea water and very very very hot ash would be far worse additions.
Regards,
Harry Mason
Quake May Be 'Imminent' Warns Tsunami Expert
By Richard Mace
6-9-5
A scientist who predicted the second Indonesian earthquake fears a third devastating jolt, powerful enough to cause another major tsunami, is "imminent".
The waves could sweep north-western Australia, reaching as far as Perth.
John McCloskey, of the University of Ulster, said building the Indian Ocean tsunami warning system was "an urgent priority".
"Don't take the foot off the gas. This is very urgent work."
In mid March, Professor McCloskey warned that the Boxing Day quake, which triggered the tsunami that killed 300,000 people, had shifted tectonic stresses to another spot on Sumatra's geological fault line.
He predicted a second strong quake, noting many did not believe lightning could strike twice. "But with earthquakes it's exactly the opposite ... I quite honestly hope we're completely wrong."
He wasn't. The second quake, measuring 8.3, struck on March 28 near the Simeulue and Nias islands, killing 2000 people.
In a new study, published in Nature, Professor McCloskey's team reports that "stresses imposed by the second rupture have brought closer to failure" another zone "immediately to the south, under the Batu and Mentawai islands".
"The historical record and the experience of the Sumatra-Andaman and Simeulue-Nias events indicate that a tsunami could be a possibility."
Professor McCloskey told the Sydney Morning Herald it would likely strike near the Mentawai islands, triggering a repeat performance of the 8.5 quake of 1833. "The 1833 earthquake is probably a reasonable model. It did trigger a tsunami and there were many casualties. That's the type of earthquake we fear it definitely could be."
Professor McCloskey noted that the 1833 tsunami reached north-western Australia. Next time "the waves would be felt in Perth," he said, adding he could not say how strong they would be.
It was impossible to say when it would happen, but the evidence, including historical data, showed it could be within 30 years, following the pattern of the 1833 and 1861 Sumatra quakes.
"It may be sooner. We must assume it's imminent and behave accordingly. We can't bury our heads in the sand."
Commenting on his last prediction, Professor McCloskey said: "I've very mixed feelings."
He had "a sense of professional satisfaction that our science has started to understand well" earthquakes. "I hope I am wrong this time, but I don't think so. It's not something you get any pleasure out of ... even though with the last one we were very accurate."
While a "high tech" warning system would protect people around the Indian Ocean, there would be no time to alert Sumatra. A program was needed to teach them how to save themselves.
"People need to plan what to do in Sumatra when they feel the earth shake. You have 15 to 20 minutes to get yourself into a position safe from the tsunami."
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